To avoid being misled by the mere association of some fact with past success,

use this memory clue. Think of Napoleon and Hitler when they invaded Russia

after using their armies with much success elsewhere. And there are plenty of

mundane examples of results like those of Napoleon and Hitler. For instance, a

man foolishly gambles in a casino and yet wins. This unlikely correlation causes

him to try the casino again, or again and again, to his horrid detriment. Or a

man gets lucky in an odds-against venture headed by an untalented friend. So

influenced, he tries again what worked before—with terrible results.

 

The proper antidotes to being made such a patsy by past success are (1) to

carefully examine each past success, looking for accidental, non- causative

factors associated with such success that will tend to mislead as one appraises

odds implicit in a proposed new undertaking and (2) to look for dangerous

aspects of the new undertaking that were not present when past success occurred.

 

The damage to the mind that can come from liking and loving was once

demonstrated by obviously false testimony given by an otherwise very admirable

woman, the wife of a party in a jury case. The famous opposing counsel wanted to

minimize his attack on such an admirable woman yet destroy the credibility of

her testimony. And so, in his closing argument, he came to her testimony last.

He then shook his head sadly and said, “What are we to make of such testimony?

The answer lies in the old rhyme:

 

‘As the husband is, So the wife is.